Are you gearing up for a race you’ve been training months for, hoping to set a personal best? Going out too fast is a definite no, but holding back too much isn’t ideal either. So, how do you determine the right pace?
Thijs Dekiere, physical coach at Golazo Energy, explains: “Everything starts with setting a realistic target time based on your previous races or training sessions. If you’re aiming to beat your personal best on the 10K, try testing yourself in training with intervals just slightly faster than your desired 10K pace. Break them into 8 to 10 repetitions of 1,000 metres. If you find this pace too challenging during training, it’s time to reassess your race-day ambitions.”
You could also opt for a test race, such as running a half marathon at marathon pace or slightly faster. Thijs continues: “If you’re already hitting your limit during those 21 km, it’s unlikely you’ll manage a marathon at that same pace six to eight weeks later.”
There are also theoretical tools to predict performance over different distances, like formulas or lactate tests. Based on your anaerobic threshold pace (the speed you can maintain for about an hour), you can estimate your potential finish time. Of course, your race-day performance will also depend on your physical condition and external factors, like weather and course conditions.
From goal to race plan
Once you’ve set a realistic goal, the next step is creating a race plan. Ideally, you’ll aim for an even pace or a negative split—running the second half of the race faster than the first.
Thijs explains: “Scientific research shows that a negative split is the most effective strategy. It helps you avoid burning out early. If your goal is to finish a marathon in under four hours, you should start at an average pace of 5:40 per kilometre and maintain that pace throughout the 42 km.
Many runners make the mistake of starting too quickly, running the first 20–30 km at 10 to 30 seconds per kilometre faster than planned. While they might gain a seven-minute lead initially, they often face cramps or energy crashes later, leading to stretching breaks or walking. This can cost them one or two minutes per kilometre, putting their sub-four-hour goal out of reach. Sticking to your target pace from the start conserves your energy reserves and increases the likelihood of maintaining a steady pace until the finish line. And yes, it will feel tough from kilometre 35 onwards—there’s no avoiding that.”
Save your push for later: Even if you’re feeling good, resist the urge to push the pace too soon. Thijs advises: “In a marathon, I recommend running at a comfortable pace until at least the 30 km mark. That’s when most runners start struggling. Elite runners from Ethiopia and Kenya often wait until kilometre 38 or 39 to launch their final push. Instead of risking a premature acceleration, aim for a safe, sustained sprint at the end.”
A little faster, a little slower
At major events, you don’t have to monitor your pace alone. Simply follow pacers aiming for your target time. Thijs explains: “A good pacer maintains an even pace and knows the course inside out, helping to navigate typical challenges. For example, on a hilly course, a strong pacer will slightly increase the speed on downhill sections, as it requires less effort, and slow down uphill to avoid pushing runners into the red zone.
The same applies to headwinds and tailwinds. Pacers may also pick up the pace slightly before an aid station, allowing runners to eat and drink without losing too much time.”
Thijs suggests adopting similar tactics yourself: “Try to gain 10 seconds per kilometre before an aid station. That way, you can comfortably refuel and still maintain your average pace afterwards.”
Struggling to set the perfect race plan?
If you’re finding it difficult to determine your ideal race pace, Golazo Energy can help. Our fitness test maps out your optimal pace and heart rate zones, and we’ll create a personalised training plan tailored to your goals. This includes preparing you for race day and identifying your perfect race pace.
Learn more about our effort running test here and set yourself up for success!
This article was created in collaboration with running.be.
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